Use Case

Stop guessing what to stock. Predict demand by buyer segment.

Persona LM scores every buyer-product pair in your Shopify store so you see which segments will convert on which SKUs — before you place the PO. 88% accuracy on holdout eval. No spreadsheet forecasts, no gut calls.

88%purchase prediction accuracy on holdout eval
1.7×more accurate than ChatGPT on your data
24hfrom Shopify connect to named segments
0 CSVexports — audiences sync live

The problem

Your inventory decisions are based on last quarter's sales report and gut feel.

You look at what sold, order more of it, and hope. But last quarter's best seller might be this quarter's deadweight — because the segment that drove those sales already moved on. Spreadsheet forecasts can't see buyer behavior shifts.

You ordered 500 units of a product because it sold well last season — 200 are still in the warehouse
Your 'top seller' is only popular with discount hunters who won't buy at full price
New product launches are a coin flip — you have no idea which buyers will convert
Your demand planning spreadsheet is updated quarterly and stale by week two
Stockouts on products your best buyers want, overstock on products nobody asked for

How Persona LM solves this

Three steps. No guesswork.

01

Connect Shopify

One OAuth click. We ingest your full order history — every buyer, every product, every transaction. No CSV uploads, no manual data prep.

02

See demand by segment

Within 24 hours, you get per-segment demand scores for your entire catalog. Which segments convert on which products, at what price, and how often.

03

Plan buys with confidence

Score new SKUs before you order. Push high-intent segments to Klaviyo or Meta. Replace gut-feel inventory planning with buyer-level demand signals.

Real segments, real data

What you'll see in your dashboard

These are the kinds of segments and insights Persona LM surfaces from Shopify transaction data.

Premium Repeat Buyer

8.4% CVR, $180 avg basket

Highest predicted demand for new accessories — 72% conversion probability. They buy at full price.

Seasonal Splurger

2.1% CVR, $240 avg basket

Only converts during product launches. Stock heavy for drops, not for evergreen.

Discount Chaser

5.8% CVR, $65 avg basket

High volume, low margin. Don't order inventory for this segment at full price — they wait for sales.

Category Loyalist

6.2% CVR, $120 avg basket

Buys exclusively from one category. Cross-sell attempts fail. Stock deep in their category, not wide.

Before vs after

Same team. Same data. Different decisions.

Without Persona LM

You order 500 units based on last quarter's sales. 200 sit in the warehouse for 6 months.

With Persona LM

You see that only 2 of 7 segments convert on that product. You order 280 and sell through in 8 weeks.

Without Persona LM

New product launch — you order based on a Slack poll and your buyer's gut.

With Persona LM

You score the product against all buyer segments before ordering. 3 segments show 60%+ conversion probability. You order with confidence.

Without Persona LM

Your best seller looks great in Shopify analytics. You double the order.

With Persona LM

Persona LM shows the best seller is driven by discount hunters (low margin). Your actual growth lever is a mid-tier product your premium buyers love.

88%prediction accuracyon holdout buyers the model has never seen
30-40%reduction in deadstockby aligning inventory to segment demand
2-3xbetter new product forecastsvs historical sales trend extrapolation
Built-in AI agent

Ask it anything. It knows your store.

Psyche is an AI analyst trained on your transactions. Ask who your best buyers are, what they'll buy next, or which segment to push to Meta — and it does it. 31 tools. Your entire purchase history loaded.

Weekly intelligence brief — Discord, email, or dashboard
Velocity alerts — what's accelerating or stalling
Stockout risk flags before you lose momentum
Ready-to-push audiences attached to every alert
U

Who are my highest-value customers?

+ searchPersonas · computeStats

Premium Repeat Buyer — 1,412 members, 8.4% CVR (2.3× above store avg), $180 avg basket. They drive 42% of revenue from 17% of your buyer base.

U

What should I push to them next?

+ forecastDemand · scoreCouncilPoll

Highest-probability next purchase: Accessories (72%). They convert better at full price. Recommend email flow at day 3 post-purchase — 68% of cross-sells close there.

U

Push that segment to Klaviyo

+ exportSegment · klaviyo_segment_upsert

Done. 1,412 profiles synced to Klaviyo. Audience auto-updates with every new order. Ready for your campaign.

Best fit

Brands spending $50K+/quarter on inventory
Stores with 10+ SKUs and seasonal product cycles
Teams tired of spreadsheet forecasting and gut-feel buying

Common questions

How does Persona LM predict demand?

We train a private model on your Shopify transaction history. It scores every buyer-product pair — so you see predicted conversion rate by segment for every SKU in your catalog. Not a trend line from last quarter. A per-buyer, per-product probability.

How accurate are the predictions?

88% purchase prediction accuracy on holdout evaluation. We test on buyers the model has never seen, so the number reflects real out-of-sample performance — not an in-sample curve fit.

Can I predict demand for a new product before it launches?

Yes. Score the new SKU against your existing buyer segments. You'll see which segments are most likely to convert, at what price sensitivity, and how deep the demand runs — before you commit to inventory.

How is this different from Shopify's built-in analytics?

Shopify shows you what already sold. Persona LM shows you what will sell, to whom, and how many. It's forward-looking demand by segment, not a sales report.

Works with the tools you already use

ShopifyKlaviyoMeta AdsGoogle AdsGA4TikTokBigCommerceCSV / API

Your data already has the answers.

Connect Shopify. Named segments, predictions, and live audiences in 24 hours. Free for 30 days.

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