Use case

Stop guessing what to stock. Predict demand by buyer segment.

Persona LM scores every buyer-product pair in your Shopify store so you see which segments will convert on which SKUs — before you place the PO. 88% accuracy on holdout eval. No spreadsheet forecasts, no gut calls.

The problem

Your inventory decisions are based on last quarter's sales report and gut feel.

You look at what sold, order more of it, and hope. But last quarter's best seller might be this quarter's deadweight — because the segment that drove those sales already moved on. Spreadsheet forecasts can't see buyer behavior shifts.

  • You ordered 500 units of a product because it sold well last season — 200 are still in the warehouse
  • Your 'top seller' is only popular with discount hunters who won't buy at full price
  • New product launches are a coin flip — you have no idea which buyers will convert
  • Your demand planning spreadsheet is updated quarterly and stale by week two
  • Stockouts on products your best buyers want, overstock on products nobody asked for
How to run it

The recipe

  1. 01

    Connect Shopify

    One OAuth click. We ingest your full order history — every buyer, every product, every transaction. No CSV uploads, no manual data prep.

  2. 02

    See demand by segment

    Within 24 hours, you get per-segment demand scores for your entire catalog. Which segments convert on which products, at what price, and how often.

  3. 03

    Plan buys with confidence

    Score new SKUs before you order. Prepare high-intent segments for Klaviyo or Meta activation. Replace gut-feel inventory planning with buyer-level demand signals.

Who each step targets

The buyer archetypes behind the playbook

  • Premium Repeat Buyer

    8.4% CVR, $180 avg basket

    Highest predicted demand for new accessories — 72% conversion probability. They buy at full price.

  • Seasonal Splurger

    2.1% CVR, $240 avg basket

    Only converts during product launches. Stock heavy for drops, not for evergreen.

  • Discount Chaser

    5.8% CVR, $65 avg basket

    High volume, low margin. Don't order inventory for this segment at full price — they wait for sales.

  • Category Loyalist

    6.2% CVR, $120 avg basket

    Buys exclusively from one category. Cross-sell attempts fail. Stock deep in their category, not wide.

Before vs after

Same team. Same data. Different decisions.

Without Persona LM
  • You order 500 units based on last quarter's sales. 200 sit in the warehouse for 6 months.
  • New product launch — you order based on a Slack poll and your buyer's gut.
  • Your best seller looks great in Shopify analytics. You double the order.
With Persona LM
  • You see that only 2 of 7 segments convert on that product. You order 280 and sell through in 8 weeks.
  • You score the product against all buyer segments before ordering. 3 segments show 60%+ conversion probability. You order with confidence.
  • Persona LM shows the best seller is driven by discount hunters (low margin). Your actual growth lever is a mid-tier product your premium buyers love.
Best fit

Built for stores that

  • Brands spending $50K+/quarter on inventory
  • Stores with 10+ SKUs and seasonal product cycles
  • Teams tired of spreadsheet forecasting and gut-feel buying
FAQ

Common questions

  • How does Persona LM predict demand?

    We train a private model on your Shopify transaction history. It scores every buyer-product pair — so you see predicted conversion rate by segment for every SKU in your catalog. Not a trend line from last quarter. A per-buyer, per-product probability.

  • How accurate are the predictions?

    88% purchase prediction accuracy on holdout evaluation. We test on buyers the model has never seen, so the number reflects real out-of-sample performance — not an in-sample curve fit.

  • Can I predict demand for a new product before it launches?

    Yes. Score the new SKU against your existing buyer segments. You'll see which segments are most likely to convert, at what price sensitivity, and how deep the demand runs — before you commit to inventory.

  • How is this different from Shopify's built-in analytics?

    Shopify shows you what already sold. Persona LM shows you what will sell, to whom, and how many. It's forward-looking demand by segment, not a sales report.

Run the audit

See it on your own store.

Free. Seven-minute connect. About 24 hours to your six named buyer archetypes plus 18 ranked campaigns.